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New Leadership, New Horizons: The impacts of the upcoming Trump Administration on Bangladesh 2.0 

dhakathinks10912 mins

Mahbub Hasan Mahim

In the U.S. presidential election on November 5, Donald Trump of the Republican Party got an evident win, and he is planned to succeed Joe Biden as the U.S. president on January 20, 2025. The imminent shift in the U.S. administration is projected to dramatically influence connections between Bangladesh and the United States. Trump’s ‘America First’ strategy during his first term was characterised by a more transactional component to diplomacy, a diminished focus on multilateralism and traditional alliances, and a greater focus on trade and economic diplomacy over more general geopolitical issues. Analysts contend that it would have major implications for Bangladesh, which has been managing a comparatively stable and cooperative relationship with the US in recent years, both this time and globally. Bangladesh’s road towards democratic and structural reformation can be greatly facilitated by the United States as Bangladesh deals with a time of transformation under its interim government.

Impact on Bangladesh’s Internal Politics

Trump’s foreign policy is more pragmatic than the Biden administration’s moral and ideological focus on democracy and human rights. The interim government of Bangladesh, led by Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, was established following the August popular upheaval, and the Biden administration has strongly backed it. Trump is not expected to be as enthusiastic about the interim administration. In fact, a number of analysts have contended that Yunus’ intimate ties to major Democrats, particularly the Clintons, are likely to make Trump have an adverse perception of the interim administration. Speaking at a conference in Paris shortly after Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016, Yunus compared his victory to “a solar eclipse.” He is unlikely to gain an edge over the renownedly thin-skinned Trump with such remarks.In a tweet made on October 31, Trump objected to so-called “barbaric violence” against Hindus and other minorities in Bangladesh and stated that “it would have never happened” under his administration. This should be considered an example of U.S. electoral politics, as both the Republicans and the Democrats attempted to turn Indian American and Hindu American voters in their favor. However, some experts have seen this statement as a warning that Washington, under the Trump administration, is likely to view Bangladesh through India’s prism once again. the Trump administration might express worries about Bangladesh’s minority rights, but major moves against Dhaka would be unlikely until Washington’s vital interests are challenged.

India factor in Bangladesh-US Relations

The Trump administration’s isolationist stance may result in less direct focus on Bangladeshi issues, which might leave a strategic vacuum that India is well-positioned to fill as it claims its regional influence. Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League, which has kept tight connections with New Delhi, is expected to gain from this change. Such Indian influence may have an impact on domestic political dynamics in Bangladesh and lessen the existing interim government’s strategic independence. Sajeeb Wazed Joy, the son of ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has engaged a US lobbying company that is closely aligned with Trump in an effort to influence American politicians over the situation in Bangladesh, in keeping with the Awami League’s narrative. Through Indian-aligned expatriate networks, Hasina’s strategists may also attempt to indirectly engage the United States in order to sway American policy in favour of their objectives over minority rights and counter-extremism in Bangladesh.

Indo-Pacific and the Geopolitical concern

Bangladesh is considered an important pivot in Indo-Pacific geopolitics because of its vital position between South and Southeast Asia. Due to its crucial Bay of Bengal location, it has evolved from a minor regional role to an essential strategic ally of major world powers. Presently, Bangladesh adopts a balanced and impartial posture on the geopolitical struggle between the United States and China, reflected by its Indo-Pacific Outlook. China and the Indo-Pacific area will probably receive more attention under the incoming Trump administration. As a result, the US is probably going to interact with Bangladesh more. For Dhaka, this brings possibilities as well as obstacles. A reinstated Trump administration may put pressure on Bangladesh to abandon its Indo-Pacific outlook. Trump may pressure Dhaka to take a more Washington-friendly attitude on U.S.-China competition, which might put pressure on Bangladesh’s foreign policy position. But given his unpredictable nature, there is still a chance that Trump could take a cooperative approach with China, which would help Bangladesh by enabling it to keep its geopolitical balance.

Economic and Humanitarian dimensions

Trump’s economic protectionist policies from his first term are anticipated to persist in his second term. The possible implementation of tariffs and other trade obstacles by the incoming Trump administration presents a big challenge for Dhaka, as the United States is the largest purchaser of Bangladesh’s main export, ready-made garments (RMG). Both U.S.-Bangladesh trade and U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) to Bangladesh have already been reduced under the Biden administration. If Trump enacts protectionist measures, the issue may get worse. However, if Chinese goods are subject to further tariffs, there is a chance that Trump would intensify the current trade war between the United States and China, enabling Dhaka to increase its RMG exports to the United States.

The help provided to Bangladesh’s sizable refugee population is a further area where the United States may cut back. Over 1.3 million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar are currently living in Bangladesh, and international support for them is already declining. The biggest source of humanitarian assistance for the Rohingya at the moment is the United States. Under Trump, the amount of funding might be cut. The Trump administration was not particularly interested in assisting Rohingya refugees with their return during his first term, and this is not expected to alter in a second term. The United States is one of the possible third-country relocation options for Rohingya refugees, which the interim administration has also advocated. Nevertheless, this approach is unlikely to gain much headway under Trump’s government, given his position on migration.

Bangladesh should keep a careful eye on changes in U.S. policy and modify its diplomatic and strategic tactics in preparation of a possible second Trump administration. Dhaka has to reaffirm its commitment to protecting minorities, highlight an autonomous collaboration with the US, and refute exaggerated allegations of persecution. Priorities should include promoting military cooperation without forming alliances, bolstering economic relations while reducing the consequences of U.S. protectionism, and promoting a safe and peaceful Indo-Pacific. The trajectory of Bangladesh-US ties under a second Trump administration remains in doubt. However, a strategic, adaptable, and principled approach by the Yunus government could protect recent successes and place Bangladesh for continued progress on the global stage.

Author___________________________________________________

Mahbub Hasan Mahim is a fourth-year International Relations student at the Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP), with a deep academic focus on global affairs and geopolitics. His particular interests span Bangladesh’s domestic politics, democracy, and the complex dynamics of South Asian regional relations. Mahim’s expertise lies in analyzing regional and global challenges, emphasizing the interplay of political, economic, and security dimensions.

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